San Diego Wave W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
San Diego Wave W42%
Bay FC W31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Diego Wave W creates 19% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Diego Wave W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches
Bay FC W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Diego Wave W attack 1.26 + Bay FC W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37
Bay FC W attack 1.08 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
San Diego Wave W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Kansas City W
Washington Spirit W
Portland Thorns W
Orlando Pride W
Seattle Reign FCSan Diego Wave W
Racing Louisville W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Angel City W
Utah Royals WBay FC
Chicago Red Stars WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
San Diego Wave W host Bay FC W on Monday, 5 May 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2025/2026 season.
NWSL Women: San Diego Wave W 2–1 Bay FC W
San Diego Wave W beat Bay FC W 2-1 in NWSL Women on May 5, 2025.
Goals: K. Wesley (6'), K. Lema (18'), T. Armstrong (90').
San Diego Wave W controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 6.
The match was played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.