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San Diego Wave W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2026

San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
4/28/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 5Snapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

San Diego Wave W44%
×Draw25%
Bay FC W30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Wave W
1.51
Bay FC W
1.21

San Diego Wave W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 33 away

creates per match

San Diego Wave W
1.39
Bay FC W
1.18

allows per match

San Diego Wave W
1.25
Bay FC W
1.64

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw
70%
San Diego Wave W or Bay FC W
75%
Draw or Bay FC W
56%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
22%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
78%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
44%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
19%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
70%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
34%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
59%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Bay FC W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Bay FC W attack 1.18 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more
44%
level
25%
Bay FC W scores more
30%

San Diego Wave W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Diego Wave W vs Bay FC W

San Diego Wave W beat Bay FC W 2-1 in NWSL Women on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California.