San Diego 1–3 Minnesota United FC: Result & Stats

San Diego

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Minnesota United FC

J. Tverskov 90'

N. Triantis 90'

C. Harvey 77'

A. Markanich 74'

9/14/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 30Snapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

San Diego48%

×Draw24%

Minnesota United FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San DiegoExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

San Diego

1.69

Minnesota United FC

1.23

San Diego creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

1.73

creates per match

1.21

1.25

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

San Diego

1.73

Minnesota United FC

1.21

allows per match

San Diego

1.25

Minnesota United FC

1.65

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

San Diego+0.50scores more

Minnesota United FC+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego ↓

Minnesota United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Diego or draw

72%

San Diego or Minnesota United FC

76%

Draw or Minnesota United FC

52%

Winning margin

San Diego wins by 2+

26%

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Diego 1+ goals

82%

San Diego 2+ goals

50%

San Diego 3+ goals

24%

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

71%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

35%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Diego (draw refunded)

63%

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.25 · 22 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego attack 1.73 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Minnesota United FC attack 1.21 + San Diego defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Diego scores more

48%

level

24%

Minnesota United FC scores more

28%

San Diego at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Diego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

97

D. St.Clair

Minnesota United FC · G

9.6

Match Events

14'

28'

36'

46'

49'

54'

63'

C. Baird← A. Pellegrino

63'

A. Markanich← J. Rosales

63'

D. Fitz← R. Lod

63'

N. Triantis← O. Gene

74'

A. Markanich↳ J. Pereyra

77'

C. Harvey

81'

A. Mighten← M. Duah

81'

P. Soma← L. de la Torre

82'

88'

90'

90'

90'

J. Tverskov↳ H. Lozano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanMinnesota

Overview

66%Possession34%

28Total Shots6

2.16Expected Goals (xG)0.50

9Corners1

12Fouls14

Shots

28Total Shots6

14On Target5

8Off Target1

6Blocked0

19Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

587Total Passes306

507Accurate Passes241

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves12

1.34Goals Prevented1.34

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2