Minnesota United FC 2–4 San Diego: Result & Stats

Minnesota United FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

San Diego

K. Yeboah 38'

C. McVey 8' (OG)

M. Iloski 90', 75'

A. Dreyer 66' (pen), 11'

6/15/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 18Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Minnesota United FC47%

×Draw23%

San Diego30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minnesota United FCExpected goals in this matchSan Diego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.44

Minnesota United FC

1.86

San Diego

1.44

Minnesota United FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

1.75

1.14

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Minnesota United FC

1.75

San Diego

1.75

allows per match

Minnesota United FC

1.14

San Diego

1.98

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.83scores more than expected

finishing

Minnesota United FC-0.25scores less

San Diego+0.83scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United FC ↓

San Diego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Minnesota United FC or draw

70%

Minnesota United FC or San Diego

77%

Draw or San Diego

53%

Winning margin

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

26%

San Diego wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

84%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

55%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

28%

San Diego 1+ goals

76%

San Diego 2+ goals

42%

San Diego 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

61%

San Diego (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

San Diego away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.98 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United FC attack 1.75 + San Diego defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.86

San Diego attack 1.75 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Minnesota United FC scores more

47%

level

23%

San Diego scores more

30%

Minnesota United FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Dreyer

San Diego · F

9.7

Match Events

8'

C. McVeyOwn goal

11'

A. Dreyer↳ I. Pilcher

38'

K. Yeboah

46'

M. Iloski← M. Ingvartsen

64'

Alejandro Alvarado JrPenalty confirmed

66'

A. DreyerPenalty

67'

E. Boateng← A. Mighten

71'

R. Lod← B. Hlongwane

75'

M. Iloski↳ A. Dreyer

79'

S. Jeong← O. Gene

89'

A. Randell← J. Gressel

89'

Jung Ho-yeon← W. Trapp

90+6'

J. Loffelsend← A. Dreyer

90'

M. Iloski↳ J. Tverskov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MinnesotaSan

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots13

1.23Expected Goals (xG)2.52

3Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

6On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

338Total Passes654

251Accurate Passes571

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Offsides4