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San Diego Loyal vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
5/14/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 12Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal49%
×Draw24%
Rio Grande Valley28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Loyal
1.75
Rio Grande Valley
1.27

San Diego Loyal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 93 away

creates per match

San Diego Loyal
1.85
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

San Diego Loyal
1.29
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw
72%
San Diego Loyal or Rio Grande Valley
76%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
51%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
26%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
83%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
52%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
25%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
72%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
36%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
64%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more
49%
level
24%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
28%

San Diego Loyal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: San Diego Loyal 2–3 Rio Grande Valley

Rio Grande Valley beat San Diego Loyal 3-2 in USL Championship on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Torero Stadium in San Diego, California.