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Rio Grande Valley vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
5/7/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 2H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Rio Grande Valley39%
×Draw25%
San Diego Loyal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.45
San Diego Loyal
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
San Diego Loyal
1.54

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
San Diego Loyal
1.46

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
64%
Rio Grande Valley or San Diego Loyal
75%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
61%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
18%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
77%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
42%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
18%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
75%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
40%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
52%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
39%
level
25%
San Diego Loyal scores more
36%

Rio Grande Valley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 1–0 San Diego Loyal

Rio Grande Valley beat San Diego Loyal 1-0 in USL Championship on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.