San Diego Loyal 4–1 Charleston Battery

San Diego Loyal

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Charleston Battery

4/10/2022

USL Championship · Round 7Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal48%

×Draw24%

Charleston Battery28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego LoyalExpected goals in this matchCharleston Battery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

San Diego Loyal

1.73

Charleston Battery

1.27

San Diego Loyal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 134 away

1.85

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

San Diego Loyal

1.85

Charleston Battery

1.26

allows per match

San Diego Loyal

1.29

Charleston Battery

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Charleston Battery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw

72%

San Diego Loyal or Charleston Battery

76%

Draw or Charleston Battery

52%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

26%

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

82%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

52%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

25%

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

72%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

36%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

63%

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more

48%

level

24%

Charleston Battery scores more

28%

San Diego Loyal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff