Charleston Battery 2–0 San Diego Loyal

Charleston Battery

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Diego Loyal

9/9/2023

USL Championship · Round 34Patriots Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Charleston Battery45%

×Draw24%

San Diego Loyal31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleston BatteryExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.34

Charleston Battery

1.67

San Diego Loyal

1.34

Charleston Battery creates 25% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 59 away

1.89

creates per match

1.54

1.15

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Charleston Battery

1.89

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Charleston Battery

1.15

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw

69%

Charleston Battery or San Diego Loyal

76%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

55%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

24%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

81%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

50%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

23%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

74%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

39%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

59%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charleston Battery scores more

45%

level

24%

San Diego Loyal scores more

31%

Charleston Battery at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff