Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Diego Loyal vs Birmingham Legion — USL Championship 2018

San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
9/3/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal46%
×Draw24%
Birmingham Legion30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Loyal
1.71
Birmingham Legion
1.34

San Diego Loyal creates 28% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 119 away

creates per match

San Diego Loyal
1.85
Birmingham Legion
1.39

allows per match

San Diego Loyal
1.29
Birmingham Legion
1.57

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Birmingham Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw
70%
San Diego Loyal or Birmingham Legion
76%
Draw or Birmingham Legion
54%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
24%
Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
82%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
51%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
24%
Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
74%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
39%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
60%
Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more
46%
level
24%
Birmingham Legion scores more
30%

San Diego Loyal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Diego Loyal vs Birmingham Legion

San Diego Loyal beat Birmingham Legion 3-0 in USL Championship on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Torero Stadium in San Diego, California.