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Birmingham Legion vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
8/14/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Protective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Birmingham Legion38%
×Draw25%
San Diego Loyal37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.40
San Diego Loyal
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 59 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
San Diego Loyal
1.54

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
San Diego Loyal
1.46

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
63%
Birmingham Legion or San Diego Loyal
75%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
62%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
17%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
75%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
41%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
17%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
75%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
40%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
51%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
38%
level
25%
San Diego Loyal scores more
37%

Birmingham Legion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham Legion vs San Diego Loyal

Birmingham Legion beat San Diego Loyal 1-0 in USL Championship on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.