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Istaravshan vs Xayr — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istaravshan
Istaravshan
FT
0 – 0
Xayr
Xayr
9/14/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Istaravshan48%
×Draw24%
Xayr28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istaravshan
1.71
Xayr
1.24

Istaravshan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Istaravshan
1.10
Xayr
1.25

allows per match

Istaravshan
1.23
Xayr
2.31

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par
Xayr+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Xayr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw
72%
Istaravshan or Xayr
76%
Draw or Xayr
52%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+
26%
Xayr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals
82%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
51%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
24%
Xayr 1+ goals
71%
Xayr 2+ goals
35%
Xayr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)
63%
Xayr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Xayr away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.10 + Xayr defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.71

Xayr attack 1.25 + Istaravshan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Istaravshan scores more
48%
level
24%
Xayr scores more
28%

Istaravshan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istaravshan 0–0 Xayr

Istaravshan and Xayr drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on September 14, 2014.

The match was played at Stadion Istaravshan in Istaravshan.