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Xayr vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Xayr
Xayr
FT
2 – 1
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
9/7/2013Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Xayr53%
×Draw26%
Istaravshan21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xayr
1.50
Istaravshan
0.82

Xayr creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Xayr
1.21
Istaravshan
0.97

allows per match

Xayr
0.68
Istaravshan
1.78

finishing

Xayr+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xayr ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Xayr or draw
79%
Xayr or Istaravshan
74%
Draw or Istaravshan
47%

Winning margin

Xayr wins by 2+
27%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xayr 1+ goals
78%
Xayr 2+ goals
44%
Xayr 3+ goals
19%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
56%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
20%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xayr (draw refunded)
72%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xayr at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xayr attack 1.21 + Istaravshan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Istaravshan attack 0.97 + Xayr defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Xayr scores more
53%
level
26%
Istaravshan scores more
21%

Xayr at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Xayr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xayr vs Istaravshan

Xayr beat Istaravshan 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on September 7, 2013.

The match was played at Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova in Khuroson.