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San Cristóbal vs Badalona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Badalona II
Badalona II
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

San Cristóbal41%
×Draw27%
Badalona II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Cristóbal
1.32
Badalona II
1.14

San Cristóbal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

creates per match

San Cristóbal
1.37
Badalona II
1.12

allows per match

San Cristóbal
1.15
Badalona II
1.27

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par
Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Badalona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw
68%
San Cristóbal or Badalona II
73%
Draw or Badalona II
59%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+
19%
Badalona II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals
73%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
38%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
15%
Badalona II 1+ goals
68%
Badalona II 2+ goals
32%
Badalona II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
56%
Badalona II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 109 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 1.37 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Badalona II attack 1.12 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Cristóbal scores more
41%
level
27%
Badalona II scores more
32%

San Cristóbal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: San Cristóbal 0–2 Badalona II

Badalona II beat San Cristóbal 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada in Tarrasa.