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Badalona II vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona II
Badalona II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II47%
×Draw28%
San Cristóbal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona II
1.32
San Cristóbal
0.89

Badalona II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 108 away

creates per match

Badalona II
1.49
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Badalona II
1.00
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw
75%
Badalona II or San Cristóbal
72%
Draw or San Cristóbal
53%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+
22%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals
73%
Badalona II 2+ goals
38%
Badalona II 3+ goals
15%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
59%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
22%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)
65%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Badalona II scores more
47%
level
28%
San Cristóbal scores more
25%

Badalona II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 1–2 San Cristóbal

San Cristóbal beat Badalona II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.