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San Clemente vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

San Clemente
San Clemente
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Estadio Municipal San Clemente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Clemente30%
×Draw28%
Quintanar del Rey42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Clemente
1.02
Quintanar del Rey
1.27

Quintanar del Rey creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 94 away

creates per match

San Clemente
1.10
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

San Clemente
1.31
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

San Clemente+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Clemente ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Clemente or draw
58%
San Clemente or Quintanar del Rey
72%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
70%

Winning margin

San Clemente wins by 2+
11%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

San Clemente 1+ goals
64%
San Clemente 2+ goals
27%
San Clemente 3+ goals
8%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
72%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
36%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Clemente (draw refunded)
41%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Clemente at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Clemente attack 1.10 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + San Clemente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Clemente scores more
30%
level
28%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
42%

Quintanar del Rey at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Clemente vs Quintanar del Rey

San Clemente and Quintanar del Rey drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Clemente in San Clemente.