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Quintanar del Rey vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Clemente
San Clemente
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Quintanar del Rey63%
×Draw23%
San Clemente14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quintanar del Rey
1.75
San Clemente
0.68

Quintanar del Rey creates 157% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 50 away

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey
1.63
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey
0.65
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw
86%
Quintanar del Rey or San Clemente
77%
Draw or San Clemente
37%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
36%
San Clemente wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
83%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
52%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
25%
San Clemente 1+ goals
49%
San Clemente 2+ goals
15%
San Clemente 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
82%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more
63%
level
23%
San Clemente scores more
14%

Quintanar del Rey at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quintanar del Rey vs San Clemente

Quintanar del Rey beat San Clemente 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.