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San Clemente vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

San Clemente
San Clemente
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Estadio Municipal San Clemente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Clemente66%
×Draw19%
Hogar Alcarreño15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Clemente
2.29
Hogar Alcarreño
0.98

San Clemente creates 134% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Clemente
1.10
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

San Clemente
1.31
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

San Clemente+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Clemente ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

San Clemente or draw
85%
San Clemente or Hogar Alcarreño
81%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
34%

Winning margin

San Clemente wins by 2+
43%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Clemente 1+ goals
90%
San Clemente 2+ goals
66%
San Clemente 3+ goals
40%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
62%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
26%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Clemente (draw refunded)
82%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Clemente at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Clemente attack 1.10 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + San Clemente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

San Clemente scores more
66%
level
19%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
15%

San Clemente at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "San Clemente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: San Clemente 3–2 Hogar Alcarreño

San Clemente beat Hogar Alcarreño 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Clemente in San Clemente.