Hogar Alcarreño 1–2 San Clemente: Result & Stats

Hogar Alcarreño

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

San Clemente

1/30/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 22Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hogar Alcarreño39%

×Draw26%

San Clemente35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hogar AlcarreñoExpected goals in this matchSan Clemente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.32

Hogar Alcarreño

1.40

San Clemente

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 50 away

0.94

creates per match

0.70

1.94

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hogar Alcarreño

0.94

San Clemente

0.70

allows per match

Hogar Alcarreño

1.94

San Clemente

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hogar Alcarreño ↓

San Clemente →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hogar Alcarreño or draw

65%

Hogar Alcarreño or San Clemente

74%

Draw or San Clemente

61%

Winning margin

Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+

18%

San Clemente wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals

75%

Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals

41%

Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals

17%

San Clemente 1+ goals

73%

San Clemente 2+ goals

38%

San Clemente 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)

52%

San Clemente (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hogar Alcarreño at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.94 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hogar Alcarreño scores more

39%

level

26%

San Clemente scores more

35%

Hogar Alcarreño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hogar Alcarreño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Hogar Alcarreño 1–2 San Clemente

San Clemente beat Hogar Alcarreño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña in Guadalajara.

Hogar Alcarreño vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Hogar Alcarreño 1–2 San Clemente