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San Bartolomé vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Bartolomé58%
×Draw26%
Los Llanos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Bartolomé
1.54
Los Llanos
0.68

San Bartolomé creates 126% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Bartolomé
1.27
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

San Bartolomé
0.96
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw
84%
San Bartolomé or Los Llanos
74%
Draw or Los Llanos
42%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+
31%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals
79%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
45%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
20%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
49%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
15%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
78%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

San Bartolomé scores more
58%
level
26%
Los Llanos scores more
16%

San Bartolomé at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Bartolomé 0 – 0 Los Llanos

San Bartolomé and Los Llanos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.