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Los Llanos vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Los Llanos
Los Llanos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos44%
×Draw27%
San Bartolomé29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Llanos
1.34
San Bartolomé
1.03

Los Llanos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Los Llanos
1.06
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Los Llanos
1.06
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw
71%
Los Llanos or San Bartolomé
73%
Draw or San Bartolomé
56%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+
20%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals
74%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
39%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
15%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
64%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
28%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)
60%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Los Llanos scores more
44%
level
27%
San Bartolomé scores more
29%

Los Llanos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Los Llanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Los Llanos 1–1 San Bartolomé

Los Llanos and San Bartolomé drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Aceró in Los Llanos de Aridane.