San Bartolomé 1–1 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

San Bartolomé

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lanzarote

5/3/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 33Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé41%

×Draw28%

Lanzarote31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San BartoloméExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

San Bartolomé

1.27

Lanzarote

1.08

San Bartolomé creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 108 away

1.27

creates per match

1.20

0.96

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

San Bartolomé

1.27

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

San Bartolomé

0.96

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Lanzarote →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw

69%

San Bartolomé or Lanzarote

72%

Draw or Lanzarote

59%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

18%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

72%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

36%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

14%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

66%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

29%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

56%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Bartolomé scores more

41%

level

28%

Lanzarote scores more

31%

San Bartolomé at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Bartolomé 1–1 Lanzarote

San Bartolomé and Lanzarote drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.

San Bartolomé vs Lanzarote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Bartolomé 1–1 Lanzarote