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Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
1/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lanzarote56%
×Draw25%
San Bartolomé19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.60
San Bartolomé
0.81

Lanzarote creates 98% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 51 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
81%
Lanzarote or San Bartolomé
75%
Draw or San Bartolomé
44%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
30%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
80%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
47%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
22%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
56%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
19%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
75%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lanzarote scores more
56%
level
25%
San Bartolomé scores more
19%

Lanzarote at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Lanzarote 3–0 San Bartolomé

Lanzarote beat San Bartolomé 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Arrecife (Lanzarote).