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San Bartolomé vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arucas
Arucas
9/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé45%
×Draw27%
Arucas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Bartolomé
1.36
Arucas
1.01

San Bartolomé creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

creates per match

San Bartolomé
1.27
Arucas
1.06

allows per match

San Bartolomé
0.96
Arucas
1.46

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par
Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Arucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw
72%
San Bartolomé or Arucas
73%
Draw or Arucas
55%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+
21%
Arucas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals
74%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
39%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
16%
Arucas 1+ goals
64%
Arucas 2+ goals
27%
Arucas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
62%
Arucas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arucas attack 1.06 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Bartolomé scores more
45%
level
27%
Arucas scores more
28%

San Bartolomé at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Bartolomé vs Arucas

Arucas beat San Bartolomé 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.