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Arucas vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Arucas50%
×Draw26%
San Bartolomé24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.55
San Bartolomé
1.00

Arucas creates 55% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
76%
Arucas or San Bartolomé
74%
Draw or San Bartolomé
50%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
26%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
79%
Arucas 2+ goals
46%
Arucas 3+ goals
20%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
63%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
26%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
67%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arucas scores more
50%
level
26%
San Bartolomé scores more
24%

Arucas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs San Bartolomé

Arucas and San Bartolomé drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo in Arucas.