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San Antonio vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
3/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4Toyota Field (San Antonio, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

San Antonio53%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
1.63
Saint Louis
0.98

San Antonio creates 66% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 45 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.75
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

San Antonio
1.03
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
77%
San Antonio or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
47%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
28%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
80%
San Antonio 2+ goals
48%
San Antonio 3+ goals
22%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
62%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
26%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
70%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.03 · 138 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.75 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + San Antonio defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Antonio scores more
53%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
23%

San Antonio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Antonio vs Saint Louis

San Antonio beat Saint Louis 2-1 in USL Championship on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Toyota Field (San Antonio, Texas).