Saint Louis 2–0 San Antonio: Result & Stats

Saint Louis

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Antonio

9/23/2018

USL Championship · Round 50Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis45%

×Draw26%

San Antonio29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint LouisExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.13

Saint Louis

1.49

San Antonio

1.13

Saint Louis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 134 away

1.55

creates per match

1.28

0.98

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Saint Louis

1.55

San Antonio

1.28

allows per match

Saint Louis

0.98

San Antonio

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par

San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

San Antonio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw

71%

Saint Louis or San Antonio

74%

Draw or San Antonio

55%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+

22%

San Antonio wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals

77%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

44%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

19%

San Antonio 1+ goals

68%

San Antonio 2+ goals

31%

San Antonio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

61%

San Antonio (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + San Antonio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

San Antonio attack 1.28 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint Louis scores more

45%

level

26%

San Antonio scores more

29%

Saint Louis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff