San Antonio 2–1 Fresno FC: Result & Stats

San Antonio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fresno FC

5/6/2018

USL Championship · Round 14Toyota Field (San Antonio, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

San Antonio48%

×Draw25%

Fresno FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San AntonioExpected goals in this matchFresno FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.09

San Antonio

1.55

Fresno FC

1.09

San Antonio creates 42% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 34 away

1.75

creates per match

1.15

1.03

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

San Antonio

1.75

Fresno FC

1.15

allows per match

San Antonio

1.03

Fresno FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Fresno FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw

73%

San Antonio or Fresno FC

75%

Draw or Fresno FC

52%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+

24%

Fresno FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals

79%

San Antonio 2+ goals

46%

San Antonio 3+ goals

20%

Fresno FC 1+ goals

66%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

30%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)

64%

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.03 · 138 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.75 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.55

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + San Antonio defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Antonio scores more

48%

level

25%

Fresno FC scores more

27%

San Antonio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff