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Fresno FC vs San Antonio — USL Championship 2018

Fresno FC
Fresno FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
4/23/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC48%
×Draw24%
San Antonio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fresno FC
1.65
San Antonio
1.20

Fresno FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 134 away

creates per match

Fresno FC
1.86
San Antonio
1.28

allows per match

Fresno FC
1.11
San Antonio
1.43

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw
72%
Fresno FC or San Antonio
76%
Draw or San Antonio
52%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+
25%
San Antonio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals
81%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
49%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
23%
San Antonio 1+ goals
70%
San Antonio 2+ goals
34%
San Antonio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)
63%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + San Antonio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

San Antonio attack 1.28 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fresno FC scores more
48%
level
24%
San Antonio scores more
28%

Fresno FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fresno FC vs San Antonio

Fresno FC and San Antonio drew 0-0 in USL Championship on April 23, 2018.

The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).