San Antonio 0–1 Austin Bold: Result & Stats

San Antonio

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Austin Bold

7/4/2021

USL Championship · Round 16Toyota Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

San Antonio54%

×Draw23%

Austin Bold23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San AntonioExpected goals in this matchAustin Bold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

San Antonio

1.77

Austin Bold

1.06

San Antonio creates 67% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 41 away

1.75

creates per match

1.10

1.03

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

San Antonio

1.75

Austin Bold

1.10

allows per match

San Antonio

1.03

Austin Bold

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par

Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Austin Bold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw

77%

San Antonio or Austin Bold

77%

Draw or Austin Bold

46%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+

30%

Austin Bold wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals

83%

San Antonio 2+ goals

53%

San Antonio 3+ goals

26%

Austin Bold 1+ goals

65%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

29%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)

70%

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.03 · 138 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.75 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + San Antonio defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Antonio scores more

54%

level

23%

Austin Bold scores more

23%

San Antonio at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff