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Austin Bold vs San Antonio — USL Championship 2018

Austin Bold
Austin Bold
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Antonio
San Antonio
10/5/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 29Bold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold46%
×Draw25%
San Antonio29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin Bold
1.57
San Antonio
1.21

Austin Bold creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 134 away

creates per match

Austin Bold
1.71
San Antonio
1.28

allows per match

Austin Bold
1.14
San Antonio
1.43

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw
71%
Austin Bold or San Antonio
75%
Draw or San Antonio
54%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+
23%
San Antonio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals
79%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
46%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
21%
San Antonio 1+ goals
70%
San Antonio 2+ goals
34%
San Antonio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)
61%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + San Antonio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

San Antonio attack 1.28 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austin Bold scores more
46%
level
25%
San Antonio scores more
29%

Austin Bold at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austin Bold vs San Antonio

Austin Bold beat San Antonio 2-1 in USL Championship on October 5, 2020.

The match was played at Bold Stadium in Austin.