San Antonio Bulo Bulo 0–3 Penarol: Result & Stats

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Penarol

M. Silvera 90', 75'

Lucas Hernandez 90'

5/7/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo43%

×Draw24%

Penarol32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Antonio Bulo BuloExpected goals in this matchPenarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.36

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.61

Penarol

1.36

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

1.67

creates per match

0.73

2.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.67

Penarol

0.73

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

2.00

Penarol

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Penarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Penarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw

68%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Penarol

76%

Draw or Penarol

57%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

22%

Penarol wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

80%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

48%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

22%

Penarol 1+ goals

74%

Penarol 2+ goals

39%

Penarol 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

57%

Penarol (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Penarol away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.67 + Penarol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Penarol attack 0.73 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

43%

level

24%

Penarol scores more

32%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Silvera

Penarol · F

8.9

Match Events

34'

C. Suarez← J. Herrera

46'

M. Otazu← G. Mendoza

46'

Lucas Hernandez← M. Olivera

46'

E. Remedi← R. Perez

49'

Leo Coelho

55'

O. Blanco

60'

D. G. Garcia Cardozo← J. Baez

60'

J. Cabrera← L. Umpierrez

65'

H. Rodriguez← J. Martines

75'

M. Silvera↳ L. Fernandez

81'

J. Aguilar← S. Viveros

81'

S. Arce← L. Barboza

85'

J. Montenegro

86'

J. Mendez← I. Sosa

90'

Lucas Hernandez↳ J. Cabrera

90'

M. Silvera↳ G. De Amores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanPenarol

Overview

43%Possession57%

6Total Shots15

0.37Expected Goals (xG)1.92

1Corners6

14Fouls3

Shots

6Total Shots15

0On Target7

5Off Target6

1Blocked2

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

298Total Passes390

227Accurate Passes302

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

14Fouls3

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4