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Penarol vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Penarol
Penarol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
A. Machado 90'
H. Villalba 60'
4/9/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Penarol85%
×Draw12%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penarol
2.41
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
0.28

Penarol creates 761% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

creates per match

Penarol
1.82
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
0.00

allows per match

Penarol
0.55
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
3.00

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par
San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

San Antonio Bulo Bulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Penarol or draw
97%
Penarol or San Antonio Bulo Bulo
88%
Draw or San Antonio Bulo Bulo
15%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+
62%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals
91%
Penarol 2+ goals
69%
Penarol 3+ goals
43%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals
24%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals
3%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)
97%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.82 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.41

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 0.00 + Penarol defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Penarol scores more
85%
level
12%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more
3%

Penarol at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. FernandezPenarolPenarol · F
9.9

Match Events

23'
J. Montenegro
28'
R. Perez
46'
E. Remedi← R. Perez
46'
H. Villalba← D. G. Garcia Cardozo
51'
S. Viveros
51'
J. Herrera← S. Viveros
60'
H. Villalba↳ L. Fernandez
65'
A. Machado← M. Silvera
69'
J. Martines← M. Otazu
69'
W. Saucedo← G. Mendoza
75'
L. Umpierrez← J. Baez
79'
L. Fernandez
79'
H. Rodriguez← C. Suarez
79'
E. Sanchez← J. Montenegro
81'
J. Monasterio
90'
A. Machado↳ L. Fernandez

Possession

60%Penarol

Shots

18Penarol

Pass accuracy

53%Penarol

Statistics

PenarolSan
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots7
1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.21
7Corners1
17Fouls19
Shots
18Total Shots7
10On Target0
5Off Target4
3Blocked3
7Inside Box4
11Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
462Total Passes307
356Accurate Passes205
77%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
-0.31Goals Prevented-0.31
Discipline
17Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Penarol vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Penarol beat San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 9, 2025.

Goals: H. Villalba (60'), A. Machado (90').

Penarol controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.