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San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
12/13/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Relegation RoundEstadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo63%
×Draw19%
Libertad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
2.39
Libertad
1.21

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 98% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.95
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.59
Libertad
2.83

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw
82%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Libertad
81%
Draw or Libertad
37%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+
41%
Libertad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals
91%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals
69%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals
42%
Libertad 1+ goals
70%
Libertad 2+ goals
34%
Libertad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)
78%
Libertad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.59 · 44 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.95 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.39

Libertad attack 0.83 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more
63%
level
19%
Libertad scores more
18%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2–0 Libertad

San Antonio Bulo Bulo beat Libertad 2-0 in Primera División on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas in Entre Ríos.