Libertad 2–0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo: Result & Stats

Libertad

Pens

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

12/16/2023

Primera División · Relegation RoundEstadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad48%

×Draw25%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LibertadExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio Bulo Bulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.14

Libertad

1.61

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.14

Libertad creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

1.35

creates per match

1.34

0.94

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Libertad

1.35

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.34

allows per match

Libertad

0.94

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

San Antonio Bulo Bulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Libertad or draw

73%

Libertad or San Antonio Bulo Bulo

75%

Draw or San Antonio Bulo Bulo

52%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+

25%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals

80%

Libertad 2+ goals

48%

Libertad 3+ goals

22%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

68%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

32%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)

64%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.34 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Libertad scores more

48%

level

25%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

27%

Libertad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff