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San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
5/1/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo49%
×Draw22%
Independiente Petrolero29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.94
Independiente Petrolero
1.43

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 91 away

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.95
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.59
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw
71%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Independiente Petrolero
78%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
51%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+
28%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals
86%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals
58%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals
30%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
76%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
42%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)
63%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.59 · 44 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.95 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.94

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more
49%
level
22%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
29%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2–2 Independiente Petrolero

San Antonio Bulo Bulo and Independiente Petrolero drew 2-2 in Primera División on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas in Entre Rios.