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Independiente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
8/25/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Independiente Petrolero50%
×Draw23%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.81
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.27

Independiente Petrolero creates 43% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 41 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.34

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.88

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

San Antonio Bulo Bulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
73%
Independiente Petrolero or San Antonio Bulo Bulo
77%
Draw or San Antonio Bulo Bulo
50%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
28%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
84%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
54%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
27%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals
72%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals
36%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
65%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.34 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
50%
level
23%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more
27%

Independiente Petrolero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Independiente Petrolero and San Antonio Bulo Bulo drew 3-3 in Primera División on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.