SamWest Blackboots 0–1 Nzoia Sugar: Result & Stats

SamWest Blackboots

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nzoia Sugar

I. Simiyu 54'

11/17/2024

Super League · Round 9Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots42%

×Draw27%

Nzoia Sugar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamWest BlackbootsExpected goals in this matchNzoia Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.10

SamWest Blackboots

1.34

Nzoia Sugar

1.10

SamWest Blackboots creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

1.18

creates per match

0.92

1.29

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots

1.18

Nzoia Sugar

0.92

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots

1.29

Nzoia Sugar

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Nzoia Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw

69%

SamWest Blackboots or Nzoia Sugar

73%

Draw or Nzoia Sugar

58%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

19%

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

74%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

39%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

15%

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals

67%

Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals

30%

Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

58%

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.92 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more

42%

level

27%

Nzoia Sugar scores more

31%

SamWest Blackboots at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SamWest Blackboots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

I. Simiyu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff