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Nzoia Sugar vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
G. Werre 85' (OG)
E. Maliachi 69'
O. Khakina 38' (pen)
Timo 80', 29'
C. Odiwuor 41'
3/15/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nzoia Sugar41%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.33
SamWest Blackboots
1.13

Nzoia Sugar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.30
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.84
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
68%
Nzoia Sugar or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
59%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
19%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
74%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
38%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
15%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
68%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
31%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
57%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.30 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Nzoia Sugar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
41%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
32%

Nzoia Sugar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Timo
38'
O. KhakinaPenalty
41'
C. Odiwuor
69'
E. Maliachi
80'
Timo
85'
G. WerreOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nzoia Sugar 3–3 SamWest Blackboots

Nzoia Sugar and SamWest Blackboots drew 3-3 in Super League on March 15, 2025.

Goals: Timo (29', 80'), O. Khakina (38' pen), C. Odiwuor (41'), E. Maliachi (69'), G. Werre (85' o.g.).

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.