SamWest Blackboots 0–2 Naivas: Result & Stats

SamWest Blackboots

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Naivas

12/22/2024

Super League · Round 14KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots33%

×Draw29%

Naivas38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamWest BlackbootsExpected goals in this matchNaivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.18

SamWest Blackboots

1.07

Naivas

1.18

Naivas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

1.18

creates per match

1.07

1.29

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots

1.18

Naivas

1.07

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots

1.29

Naivas

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Naivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Naivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw

62%

SamWest Blackboots or Naivas

71%

Draw or Naivas

67%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

13%

Naivas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

66%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

29%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

9%

Naivas 1+ goals

69%

Naivas 2+ goals

33%

Naivas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

46%

Naivas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Naivas away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Naivas defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Naivas attack 1.07 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more

33%

level

29%

Naivas scores more

38%

Naivas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff