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Naivas vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
5/24/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 34Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Naivas48%
×Draw26%
SamWest Blackboots27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.52
SamWest Blackboots
1.07

Naivas creates 42% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
73%
Naivas or SamWest Blackboots
74%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
52%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
24%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
78%
Naivas 2+ goals
45%
Naivas 3+ goals
20%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
66%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
29%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
64%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naivas scores more
48%
level
26%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
27%

Naivas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naivas vs SamWest Blackboots

Naivas beat SamWest Blackboots 4-1 in Super League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.