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SamWest Blackboots vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
Unknown 76'
M. Karamor 76'
5/18/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Hope Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots27%
×Draw28%
Nairobi United45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
0.94
Nairobi United
1.29

Nairobi United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
55%
SamWest Blackboots or Nairobi United
72%
Draw or Nairobi United
73%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
10%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
61%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
24%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
7%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
72%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
37%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
38%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.94

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
27%
level
28%
Nairobi United scores more
45%

Nairobi United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
M. Karamor
76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SamWest Blackboots vs Nairobi United

SamWest Blackboots and Nairobi United drew 1-1 in Super League on May 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Karamor (76'), ? (76').

The match was played at Hope Centre in Nairobi.