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Nairobi United vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
I. Omweri 80'
N. Onchiri 71'
12/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nairobi United49%
×Draw24%
SamWest Blackboots27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
1.65
SamWest Blackboots
1.16

Nairobi United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.92
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Nairobi United
0.89
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
73%
Nairobi United or SamWest Blackboots
76%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
51%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
26%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
81%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
49%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
23%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
69%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
32%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
64%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nairobi United scores more
49%
level
24%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
27%

Nairobi United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
N. Onchiri
80'
I. Omweri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi United vs SamWest Blackboots

Nairobi United and SamWest Blackboots drew 1-1 in Super League on December 1, 2024.

Goals: N. Onchiri (71'), I. Omweri (80').

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.