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SamWest Blackboots vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
Unknown 55'
Unknown 40'
3/30/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots45%
×Draw27%
Mombasa Elite28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
1.40
Mombasa Elite
1.04

SamWest Blackboots creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
72%
SamWest Blackboots or Mombasa Elite
73%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
55%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
22%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
75%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
41%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
17%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
65%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
28%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
62%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
45%
level
27%
Mombasa Elite scores more
28%

SamWest Blackboots at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SamWest Blackboots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
55'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: SamWest Blackboots 1–1 Mombasa Elite

SamWest Blackboots and Mombasa Elite drew 1-1 in Super League on March 30, 2025.

Goals: ? (40', 55').

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.