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Mombasa Elite vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
2 – 1
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
9/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mombasa Elite41%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.37
SamWest Blackboots
1.18

Mombasa Elite creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
68%
Mombasa Elite or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
59%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
19%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
75%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
40%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
16%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
69%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
33%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
56%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
41%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
32%

Mombasa Elite at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mombasa Elite vs SamWest Blackboots

Mombasa Elite beat SamWest Blackboots 2-1 in Super League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Serani Sports Ground in Mombasa.