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SamWest Blackboots vs MOFA — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
MOFA
MOFA
Timo 89'
Onyi 55', 35'
J. Odoke 7'
Unknown 90+7', 3'
12/11/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots35%
×Draw29%
MOFA37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
1.09
MOFA
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
MOFA
0.97

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
MOFA
1.00

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
MOFA+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

MOFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
63%
SamWest Blackboots or MOFA
71%
Draw or MOFA
65%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
14%
MOFA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
66%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
30%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
10%
MOFA 1+ goals
68%
MOFA 2+ goals
31%
MOFA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
49%
MOFA (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

MOFA away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + MOFA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

MOFA attack 0.97 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
35%
level
29%
MOFA scores more
37%

MOFA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "MOFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
7'
J. Odoke
35'
Onyi
55'
Onyi
89'
Timo
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: SamWest Blackboots 4–2 MOFA

SamWest Blackboots beat MOFA 4-2 in Super League on December 11, 2024.

Goals: ? (3', 90+7'), J. Odoke (7'), Onyi (35', 55'), Timo (89').

The match was played at KIHBT Grounds in Ngong Kibiku.