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MOFA vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

MOFA
MOFA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
Unknown 36'
Unknown 89'
5/11/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

MOFA44%
×Draw26%
SamWest Blackboots30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MOFA
1.48
SamWest Blackboots
1.17

MOFA creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

MOFA
1.59
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

MOFA
0.92
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

MOFA+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MOFA ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

MOFA or draw
70%
MOFA or SamWest Blackboots
74%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
56%

Winning margin

MOFA wins by 2+
22%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

MOFA 1+ goals
77%
MOFA 2+ goals
43%
MOFA 3+ goals
19%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
69%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
33%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

MOFA (draw refunded)
60%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MOFA at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MOFA attack 1.59 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + MOFA defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MOFA scores more
44%
level
26%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
30%

MOFA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "MOFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MOFA 1–1 SamWest Blackboots

MOFA and SamWest Blackboots drew 1-1 in Super League on May 11, 2025.

Goals: ? (36', 89').

The match was played at Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium in Kisumu.