Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SamWest Blackboots vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
Unknown 22'
S. Obonyo 70'
3/9/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots42%
×Draw29%
Luanda Villa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
1.24
Luanda Villa
0.97

SamWest Blackboots creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 56 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
71%
SamWest Blackboots or Luanda Villa
71%
Draw or Luanda Villa
58%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
19%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
71%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
35%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
13%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
62%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
25%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
59%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
42%
level
29%
Luanda Villa scores more
29%

SamWest Blackboots at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SamWest Blackboots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
70'
S. Obonyo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SamWest Blackboots vs Luanda Villa

SamWest Blackboots and Luanda Villa drew 1-1 in Super League on March 9, 2025.

Goals: ? (22'), S. Obonyo (70').

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.