Luanda Villa 2–2 SamWest Blackboots: Result & Stats

Luanda Villa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

SamWest Blackboots

T. Ndayala 25' (pen)

V. Barrack 1'

Unknown 64', 35'

11/24/2024

Super League · Round 10Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luanda Villa43%

×Draw26%

SamWest Blackboots30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luanda VillaExpected goals in this matchSamWest Blackboots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Luanda Villa

1.43

SamWest Blackboots

1.15

Luanda Villa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.49

creates per match

1.42

0.88

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Luanda Villa

1.49

SamWest Blackboots

1.42

allows per match

Luanda Villa

0.88

SamWest Blackboots

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

SamWest Blackboots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw

70%

Luanda Villa or SamWest Blackboots

74%

Draw or SamWest Blackboots

57%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+

21%

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals

76%

Luanda Villa 2+ goals

42%

Luanda Villa 3+ goals

17%

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

68%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

32%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)

59%

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luanda Villa scores more

43%

level

26%

SamWest Blackboots scores more

30%

Luanda Villa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

V. Barrack

25'

T. NdayalaPenalty

35'

64'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff