SamWest Blackboots 3–2 Kisumu All Stars

SamWest Blackboots

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kisumu All Stars

Gilly 90+3', 13'

Kirio 60'

Unknown 87', 63'

1/19/2025

Super League · Round 16KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots42%

×Draw27%

Kisumu All Stars31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamWest BlackbootsExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

SamWest Blackboots

1.33

Kisumu All Stars

1.09

SamWest Blackboots creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

1.18

creates per match

0.89

1.29

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots

1.18

Kisumu All Stars

0.89

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots

1.29

Kisumu All Stars

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw

69%

SamWest Blackboots or Kisumu All Stars

73%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

58%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

19%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

74%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

38%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

15%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

66%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

30%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

58%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more

42%

level

27%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

31%

SamWest Blackboots at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SamWest Blackboots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Gilly

60'

Kirio

63'

69'

87'

90+3'

Gilly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff