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Kisumu All Stars vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
Unknown 58', 29', 22'
4/26/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kisumu All Stars43%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.38
SamWest Blackboots
1.12

Kisumu All Stars creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.39
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.82
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
70%
Kisumu All Stars or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
57%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
20%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
75%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
40%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
16%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
67%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
31%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
58%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
43%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
30%

Kisumu All Stars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
28'
29'
58'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisumu All Stars vs SamWest Blackboots

SamWest Blackboots beat Kisumu All Stars 3-0 in Super League on April 26, 2025.

Goals: ? (22', 29', 58').

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.